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03/04/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are down 4 point and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 91 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 122 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.

OPEC+ surprised markets with news that it will reduce oil production by another 1 million barrels per day starting in May, according to Bloomberg. According to FT, Saudi Arabia was "irritated" with the Biden Administration after ruling out new purchases of oil to refill the SPR. WTI crude oil futures are up 6.6% to $80.64/bbl.

Equity futures indicate a mixed open with the Dow outperforming as money flows into blue chip names with Chevron (CVX) a favored spot.

China's March Caixin Manufacturing PMI was down to 50.0 from 51.6 last month (expected 51.7). This comes ahead of the March ISM Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 47.5%; prior 47.7%) release this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET.

The 2-yr Treasury note yield is up two basis points to 4.09% and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.50%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 102.33.

Aside from the ISM Manufacturing Index, other data releases today include:

  • 9:45 a.m. ET: March IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI - Final (prior 49.3)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: February Construction Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%; prior -0.1%)

In corporate news:

  • Tesla (TSLA 201.90, -5.56, -2.7%): reports Q1 production of 440,808 vehicles and delivered over 422,000 vehicles.

  • McDonald's (MCD 281.67, +2.06, +0.7%) temporarily closes US offices ahead of corporate layoff announcements, according to WSJ

  • UBS 4.05% (UBS 20.31, -1.03, -4.8%): will eliminate 20-30% of workforce after Credit Suisse (CS) deal gets complicated, according to Bloomberg

  • World Wrestling (WWE 83.60, -7.66, -8.4%): Endeavor Group announces UFC and WWE (WWE) to form a $21+ billion global live sports and entertainment company

  • Chevron (CVX 170.62, +7.46, +4.6%): OPEC will reduce oil production by another 1 million barrels per day, according to Bloomberg

  • Extra Space Storage (EXR 153.00, -9.93, -6.1%): company and Life Storage (LSI) combine to form the preeminent storage operator

  • Teck Resources (TECK 40.98, +4.48, +12.3%): Board of Directors rejects unsolicited acquisition proposal

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.1%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.7%, India's Sensex: +0.2%, South Korea's Kospi: -0.2%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.6%.

  • In economic data:

  • China's March Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.0 (expected 51.7; last 51.6)

  • Japan's March Manufacturing PMI 49.2 (expected 48.6; last 48.6). Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 1 (expected 3; last 7) and Q1 Tankan Large-Non Manufacturers Diffusion Index 15 (expected 16; last 11). Q1 Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX 3.2% (expected 4.9%; last 19.2%)

  • South Korea's March Nikkei Manufacturing PMI 47.6 (last 48.5)

  • Australia's March Manufacturing PMI 49.1 (expected 48.7; last 50.5). February Building Approvals 4.0% m/m (expected -2.0%; last -27.1%) and Private House Approvals 11.3% (expected -0.8%; last -13.8%). March Home Loans -1.2% m/m (expected -3.0%; last -2.0%). March Retail Sales 0.2% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 1.8%)

  • Singapore's Q1 URA Property Index 3.2% qtr/qtr (last 0.4%)


  • In news:

  • China will reportedly forbid adding steel production capacity and will increase M&A support.

  • China and Japan have reportedly established a military hotline.

  • Japan is suspending subsidies for several utility providers.

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.60% at tomorrow's policy meeting while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to announce a 25-bps hike on Wednesday.



  • Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note. STOXX Europe 600: +0.1%, Germany's DAX: UNCH, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.7%, France's CAC 40: +0.4%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.4%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's March Manufacturing PMI 47.3 (expected 47.1; last 48.5)

  • Germany's March Manufacturing PMI 44.7 (expected 44.4; last 46.3)

  • U.K.'s March Manufacturing PMI 47.9 (expected 48.0; last 49.3)

  • France's March Manufacturing PMI 47.3 (expected 47.7; last 47.4). February government budget balance -EUR50.30 bln (last -EUR21.20 bln)

  • Italy's March Manufacturing PMI 51.1 (expected 51.0; last 52.0)

  • Spain's March Manufacturing PMI 51.3 (expected 50.1; last 50.7)

  • Swiss March CPI 0.2% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.7%); 2.9% yr/yr (expected 3.2%; last 3.4%). March procure.ch PMI 47.0 (expected 48.9; last 48.9)


  • In news:

  • The eurozone's Manufacturing PMI slipped deeper into contractionary territory in the final March reading.

  • European Central Bank policymaker de Guindos said that broad risks across the financial sector are being monitored and that the ECB would act to preserve stability in the eurozone.

  • Finland will become a NATO member tomorrow.

  • Fitch affirmed Germany's AAA rating with a Stable outlook.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -7 @ 4,102

  • DJIA Futures: +112 @ 33,387

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -99 @ 13,082

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX UNCH, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +0.4%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +4.95 @ 80.62

  • Nat Gas -0.147 @ 2.069

  • Gold +8.45 @ 1994.65

  • Silver -0.023 @ 24.133

  • Copper -0.0110 @ 4.0835


Earnings/Guidance:

  • Science Applications ( SAIC 0.73% ) beats by $0.39, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, lowers FY24 revs below consensus

News:

  • OPEC will reduce oil production by another 1 million barrels per day, according to Bloomberg

  • Saudi Arabia was "irritated" with Biden Administration after ruled out new purchases of oil to refill the SPR, according to Financial Times

  • Fed Governor Chris Waller says inflation can drop without harming the labor market, according to Reuters

  • U.S. Medicare program finalizes 1.12% cut to Medicare Advantage 2024 rates, according to Bloomberg

  • US regional banks lowered cash buffers ahead of banking issues, according to Financial Times

  • New requirements might be expensive for regional banks but prevent deposit outflows, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson in interview says he will seek the Republican nomination for President, according to ABC News

  • Federal judge strikes down Minnesota's 21 year old age requirement for gun permits, according to ABC News

  • Finland left leaning Prime Minister Sanna Marin has lost election, according to CNN

  • Former President Trump will be arraigned tomorrow and plead not guilty to criminal charges. His lawyers will try and dismiss the case, according to Bloomberg

  • Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported March gross revs 246% yr/yr to HKD 10.3 bln versus -55.8% in March of 2022

  • American Water Works ( AWK 0.41% ): California American Water to sign Pure Water Monterey Expansion agreement; an expansion project for future water supplies for the Monterey Peninsula

  • Amryt Pharma plc ( AMYT 0.14% ) announces that the High Court of Justice of England and Wales has sanctioned the scheme of arrangement providing for the proposed acquisition of Amryt by Chiesi Farmaceutici S.p.A. at a hearing held on March 31, 2023

  • Apple ( AAPL 1.56% ) will introduce mixed reality headset in June, according to Bloomberg

  • Arrowhead ( ARWR 3.97% ) announces that it earned a $30 mln milestone payment from GSK (GSK) following the start of GSK's Phase 2b trial of GSK4532990

  • Ascendis Pharma ( ASND 1.23% ) announces that initial dose escalation data from the Company's ongoing Phase 1/2 IL-Believe Trial of TransCon IL-2 /? alone or in combination with pembrolizumab has been accepted for online publication at ASCO 2023

  • AstraZeneca ( AZN 0.30% ) reports Ultomiris receives recommendedation for approval in the EU by CHMP

  • Banner ( BANR 1.72% ) CFO Peter Conner to retire, effective October 10; current CAO Robert Butterfield to be promoted CFO

  • BioNTech ( BNTX 1.63% ) and and DualityBio form global strategic partnership to accelerate development of differentiated antibody-drug conjugate therapeutics for solid tumors

  • Burford Capital ( BUR 53.19% ) issues statement on YPF summary judgment ruling

  • Cummins ( CMI 2.05% ) announces investments of more than $1 billion across US manufacturing network

  • Fox ( FOX 1.36% ): Delaware judge said Dominion's $1.6 bln defamation suit can move to trial in April, according to CNBC

  • Frontier Communications ( FYBR 3.88% ) Parent discloses that it entered into an agreement with Ares Management (ARES)

  • Gatos Silver ( GATO 2.97% ) Explains Delay in Filing 2022 Year-End Financial Statements and Announces Restatement of Previously Issued Financial Statements for Non-Cash Adjustments

  • Huntington Ingalls ( HII 0.02% ) receives 1.3 bln contract for the detail design & construction of LPD 32

  • JPMorgan Chase ( JPM 1.19% ): Sergey Brin, Thomas Pritzker, Mortimer Zuckerman and Michael Ovitz among latest individuals issued subpoenas related to JPM case with J. Epstein, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Kodiak Sciences ( KOD 1.89% ) Expands Development Pipeline with Treatment of First Patient in Phase 1 Clinical Study of KSI-501, an Investigational Bispecific Antibody Biopolymer Conjugate for Retinal Diseases

  • Li Auto ( LI 1.46% ) reports March deliveries increased 88.7% yr/yr

  • Marathon Digital Holdings ( MARA 11.37% ) CFO Hugh Gallagher to retire, effective May 12; initiated search for new CFO

  • McDonald's ( MCD 0.66% ) temporary closes US offices ahead of corporate layoffs, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • NIO ( NIO 0.48% ) reports it delivered 10,378 vehicles in March

  • Novartis AG's ( NVS 0.46% ) Sandoz receives approval by European Commission for Hyrimoz (adalimumab) high-concentration formulation

  • Proterra ( PTRA 0.66% ) finalizes agreement with cowen convertible note holders

  • Tango Therapeutics ( TNGX 0.77% ): FDA clears IND application for TNG260 for the treatment of STK11-mutant cancers

  • Tesla ( TSLA 6.24% ) reports Q1 production of 440,808 vehicles

  • Tesla ( TSLA 6.24% ) loses union factory ruling, according to the New York Times

  • Travere Therapeutics ( TVTX 1.81% ) Announces Interim Analysis from the Phase 3 PROTECT Study of FILSPARI (Sparsentan) in IgA Nephropathy Published in The Lancet and Presented at World Congress of Nephrology 2023

  • UBS ( UBS 4.05% ) will eliminate 20-30% of workforce after Credit Suisse (CS) deal gets complicated, according to Bloomberg

  • Verizon ( VZ 0.59% ) and AT&T (T) will gain full use of c-band, according to Reuters

  • XPeng ( XPEV 2.46% ) reports March deliveries increased 17% yr/yr

M&A:

  • Apellis Pharmaceuticals ( APLS 0.09% ) is receiving takeover interest from larger companies, according to Bloomberg

  • Blackstone ( BX 2.44% ) aiming to purchase Industrials REIT Ltd, according to Bloomberg

  • Credit Suisse ( CS 2.18% ): Prosecutors from Switzerland are investigating UBS (UBS) takeover of Credit Suisse, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Deep Medicine Acquisition Corp. ( DMAQ 0.28% ) and TruGolf announce the execution of a definitive merger agreement

  • Endeavor Group ( EDR 3.37% ) announces UFC and WWE (WWE) to form a $21+ billion global live sports and entertainment company

  • Enovis Corporation ( ENOV 1.13% ) to acquire Novastep; financial terms not disclosed

  • Life Storage ( LSI 2.24% ): Extra Space Storage (EXR) & LSI combine to form the preeminent storage operator

  • Ovintiv ( OVV 2.53% ) to acquire core Midland basin assets

  • Stratasys ( SSYS 1.85% ): Board rejects Nano Dimension's (NNDM) revised proposal of $19.55/share

  • Teck Resources ( TECK 0.86% ) Board of Directors rejects unsolicited acquisition proposal

Syndicate:

  • Amyris ( AMRS 0.00% ) files for 810,596 share common stock offering by selling shareholders

  • Atmos Energy ( ATO 0.38% ) files $5.0 bln mixed shelf securities offering

  • BioVie Inc. ( BIVI 2.53% ) files for 85,175 share common stock offering by selling shareholder

  • BlackSky Technology ( BKSY 6.38% ) files for 32,807,354 share common stock offering by selling shareholders

  • Celanese ( CE 2.35% ) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • Everi ( EVRI 1.66% ) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • GitLab ( GTLB 3.88% ) files for 1,635,545 share common stock offering by selling shareholders

  • Kodiak Sciences ( KOD 1.89% ) files for 17,310,490 share common stock offering by selling shareholders

  • Marinus Pharmaceuticals ( MRNS 1.29% ) files $375 mln mixed shelf securities offering

  • Southland ( SLND 1.29% ) files for 53,669,877 share common stock offering by selling shareholders; relates to warrants

IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

  • No IPOs expected.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • RIG +6.8%, MRO +5.8%, HAL +5.5%, BUR +5.2%, USO +4.8%, OXY +4.7%, DVN +4.6%, WYNN +4.5%, SU +4.4%, SLB +4.4%, SHEL +4.2%, TTE +4.2%, BP +4.1%, CVX +3.6%, E +3.5%, COP +3.5%, XOM +3.4%, MLCO +3.3%, PBR +3.2%, LVS +3.2%, PPTA +3.1%, ATO +3%, CNQ +2.9%, TVTX +2.3%, XPEV +2.1%, MGM +1.6%, SDRL +1%, LI +0.8%


  • Gapping down:

  • KOD -4.8%, AMRS -4.4%, MRNS -2.9%, BKSY -2.7%, TSLA -1.6%, AVA -1.2%, EVRI -0.9%, FOX -0.5%, BIVI -0.5%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list:

  • Upgrades

  • Alaska Air (ALK) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James; tgt raised to $68

  • Martin Marietta (MLM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $428

  • SkyWest (SKYW) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at Raymond James

  • SL Green Realty (SLG) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $30

  • U.S. Silica (SLCA) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays; tgt $17

  • Vulcan Materials (VMC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $212


  • Downgrades:

  • AGCO Corp (AGCO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $135

  • ArcelorMittal (MT) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

  • Automatic Data (ADP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $211

  • Catalent (CTLT) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt $70

  • Certara (CERT) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt $25

  • LPL Financial (LPLA) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $205

  • Manitowoc (MTW) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $15

  • Oshkosh (OSK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt $94


  • Others:

  • Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) resumed with an Outperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt raised to $60

  • Microvast (MVST) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $8


  • Econ Data:

  • 09:45 ET: IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI - Final for Mar (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 49.3)

  • 10:00 ET: Construction Spending for Feb (Briefing.com Consensus 0.0; Prior -0.1%)

  • 10:00 ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for Mar (Briefing.com Consensus 47.5%; Prior 47.7%)


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Apr 3)

  • Morning: SAIC


  • Tuesday (Apr 4)

  • Morning: AYI LNN MSM

  • Afternoon: DLO RGP SGH


  • Wednesday (Apr 5)

  • Morning: CAG SCHN SMPL

  • Afternoon: SLP


  • Thursday (Apr 6)

  • Morning: STZ LW RPM

  • Afternoon: LEVI WDFC



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly higher note. China will reportedly forbid adding steel production capacity and will increase M&A support. China and Japan have reportedly established a military hotline. Japan is suspending subsidies for several utility providers. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.60% at tomorrow's policy meeting while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to announce a 25-bps hike on Wednesday.

  • In economic data:

  • China's March Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.0 (expected 51.7; last 51.6)

  • Japan's March Manufacturing PMI 49.2 (expected 48.6; last 48.6). Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 1 (expected 3; last 7) and Q1 Tankan Large-Non Manufacturers Diffusion Index 15 (expected 16; last 11). Q1 Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX 3.2% (expected 4.9%; last 19.2%)

  • South Korea's March Nikkei Manufacturing PMI 47.6 (last 48.5)

  • Australia's March Manufacturing PMI 49.1 (expected 48.7; last 50.5). February Building Approvals 4.0% m/m (expected -2.0%; last -27.1%) and Private House Approvals 11.3% (expected -0.8%; last -13.8%). March Home Loans -1.2% m/m (expected -3.0%; last -2.0%). March Retail Sales 0.2% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 1.8%)

  • Singapore's Q1 URA Property Index 3.2% qtr/qtr (last 0.4%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.1%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.7%

  • India's Sensex: +0.2%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -0.2%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.6%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.4% to 133.28

  • USD/CNH: +0.3% to 6.8914

  • USD/INR: +0.1% to 82.25

Europe: DAX UNCH, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +0.4%

Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note. The eurozone's Manufacturing PMI slipped deeper into contractionary territory in the final March reading. European Central Bank policymaker de Guindos said that broad risks across the financial sector are being monitored and that the ECB would act to preserve stability in the eurozone. Finland will become a NATO member tomorrow. Fitch affirmed Germany's AAA rating with a Stable outlook.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's March Manufacturing PMI 47.3 (expected 47.1; last 48.5)

  • Germany's March Manufacturing PMI 44.7 (expected 44.4; last 46.3)

  • U.K.'s March Manufacturing PMI 47.9 (expected 48.0; last 49.3)

  • France's March Manufacturing PMI 47.3 (expected 47.7; last 47.4). February government budget balance -EUR50.30 bln (last -EUR21.20 bln)

  • Italy's March Manufacturing PMI 51.1 (expected 51.0; last 52.0)

  • Spain's March Manufacturing PMI 51.3 (expected 50.1; last 50.7)

  • Swiss March CPI 0.2% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.7%); 2.9% yr/yr (expected 3.2%; last 3.4%). March procure.ch PMI 47.0 (expected 48.9; last 48.9)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.1%

  • Germany's DAX: UNCH

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.7%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.4%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.4%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.2% to 1.0864

  • GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.2368

  • USD/CHF: +0.2% to 0.9165


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