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02/12/22 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are down 2 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 14 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 35 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

There's a mixed disposition in the equity futures market. Moves are modest as participants await the employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET.

China is suggesting it will take "baby steps" to move away from its zero-COIVD policy, according to the Washington Post.

EU governments have tentatively agreed on a $60/barrel price cap on Russian oil, according to Reuters.

This comes amid speculation that OPEC+ will consider production cuts ahead of its meeting early next week.

The eurozone reported a welcome weaker-than-expected October PPI (-2.9% month-over-month), but PPI is still up 30.8% on a year-over-year basis.

The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 104.44.

Treasury yields continue to pullback. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.20% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.51%.

In corporate news:

  • Marvell (MRVL 43.11, -2.29, -5.0%): misses by $0.02, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Ambarella (AMBA 72.15, -1.78, -2.4%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revs below consensus

  • Ulta Beauty (ULTA 479.99, +.746, +1.5%): beats by $1.21, beats on revs, comps of +14.6%; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus, raises comp guidance

  • Zscaler (ZS 131.05, -13.45, -9.3%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; but disappointed with billings growth guidance

  • Smartsheet (SMAR 36.40, +3.89, +12.0%): beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Veeva Systems (VEEV 184.30, -7.12, -3.7%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • PagerDuty (PD 24.25, +1.73, +7.7%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Asana (ASAN 15.55, -2.53, -14.0%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • UiPath (PATH 14.54, +1.62, +12.5%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus

  • Credit Suisse (CS 3.3300, +0.24, +7.8%): Chairman Axel Lehmann says liquidity situation is improving, according to Bloomberg interview

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -1.6% (-1.8% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.3% (+6.3% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3% (+1.8% for the week), India's Sensex: -0.7% (+0.9% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: -1.8% (-0.1% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.7% (+0.8% for the week).

  • In economic data:

  • South Korea's November CPI -0.1% m/m (last 0.3%); 5.0% yr/yr (expected 5.1%; last 5.7%)

  • Australia's October Home Loans -2.9% m/m (expected -4.5%; last -4.8%) and October Retail Sales -0.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.6%)

  • New Zealand's Q3 Terms of Trade Index -3.4% qtr/qtr (expected 1.6%; last -2.4%)


  • In news:

  • Japanese regulators are reportedly probing regional banks regarding unrealized losses on foreign bonds.

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda acknowledged that a global economic slowdown has been observed.

  • Unionized rail workers in South Korea dropped their plan for a strike.



  • Major European indices trade near their flat lines. STOXX Europe 600: -0.1% (+0.7% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: +0.3% (UNCH week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2% (+0.8% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: -0.1% (+0.5% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: UNCH (-0.1% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: UNCH (-0.1% week-to-date).

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's October PPI -2.9% m/m (expected -2.0%; last 1.6%); 30.8% yr/yr (expected 31.5%; last 41.9%)

  • Germany's October trade surplus EUR6.90 bln (expected surplus of EUR5.20 bln; last surplus of EUR2.80 bln). October Imports -3.7% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -2.2%) and Exports -0.6% m/m (expected -0.3%; last -0.7%). October Import Price Index -1.2% m/m (expected -1.7%; last -0.9%); 23.5% yr/yr (expected 23.3%; last 29.8%)

  • France's October Industrial Production -2.6% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.9%). October government budget deficit EUR143.20 bln (last deficit of EUR146.60 bln)

  • Spain's November Unemployment Change -33,500 (expected -20,300; last -27,000)


  • In news:

  • Eurozone's October PPI decelerated for the second consecutive month, returning to levels seen at the end of Q1.

  • European officials are still trying to agree on a price cap for Russian oil.

  • Hungary's Prime Minister Orban repeated his country's opposition to implementing a global minimum corporate tax.

  • Spain was visited by over seven million tourists in October, which was about 6.0% below the total from October 2019.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -1 @ 4,075

  • DJIA Futures: -45 @ 34,350

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -8 @ 12,034

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.3%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -0.1%

  • Asia: Nikkei -1.6%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.70 @ 81.92

  • Nat Gas +0.010 @ 6.748

  • Gold -3.05 @ 1812.15

  • Silver +0.037 @ 22.877

  • Copper -0.0103 @ 3.8072

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Ambarella ( AMBA 0.36% ) beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revs below consensus

  • American Outdoor Brands ( AOUT 0.95% ) beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line

  • Asana ( ASAN 0.44% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • ChargePoint ( CHPT 1.85% ) reports Q3 (Oct) results, misses on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs in-line

  • Genesco ( GCO 7.26% ) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; lowers FY23 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • HF Sinclair ( DINO 2.41% ) discloses that it sees FY22 CapEx of $940 mln - $1.15 bln

  • Holly Energy Partners ( HEP 0.05% ) sees FY23 CapEx of $30.0-45.0 mln

  • Marvell ( MRVL 2.41% ) misses by $0.02, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • PagerDuty ( PD 1.26% ) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Samsara ( IOT 3.88% ) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs above consensus

  • Smartsheet ( SMAR 5.76% ) beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • UiPath ( PATH 3.61% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus

  • Ulta Beauty ( ULTA 1.65% ) beats by $1.21, beats on revs, comps of +14.6%; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus, raises comp guidance

  • Veeva Systems ( VEEV 0.56% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • VTEX's ( VTEX 2.79% ) November GMV increased 33% yr/yr to $1.75 bln, underscoring a strong performance during the start of the holiday shopping season

  • Zumiez ( ZUMZ 6.11% ) beats by $0.19, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Zscaler ( ZS 8.28% ) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

News:

  • China's coronavirus czar says it will take "baby steps" to move away from zero coronavirus policy, according to the Washington Post

  • EU governments have tentative agreement on $60/barrel cap on Russian oil, according to Reuters

  • OPEC+ will consider larger output reductions Sunday ahead of next week's EU sanctions and price cap on Russian oil, CNBC

  • EPA confirms next steps in renewable fuel standard program for 2023-25

  • FBI NICS firearm background checks report: unadjusted criminal checks rose 11% to 2.79 mln in November, the highest in eight months

  • Accuray ( ARAY 2.44% ) to reduce approximately 4.5% of its global workforce

  • AMC Networks ( AMCX 0.60% ) confirms it commenced a structuring plan on November 28; expected to be substantially completed by the end of 2023

  • Anavex ( AVXL 0.57% ) reports ANAVEX2-73 (Blarcamesine) Phase 2B/3 study met primary and key secondary endpoints

  • Apple ( AAPL 0.19% ) renamed mixed-reality software xrOS, signaling a headset may be approaching debut, according to Bloomberg

  • Archer Aviation ( ACHR 2.79% ) completes Maker's first full transition flight less than a year after its first hover flight, another step toward being the first company to certify an eVTOL aircraft in the US with the FAA

  • Beam Therapeutics ( BEAM 0.78% ) announces FDA has lifted the clinical hold on the investigational new drug application for BEAM-201

  • Centrus Energy's ( LEU 1.79% ) wholly-owned subsidiary, American Centrifuge Operating, signs contract with U.S. Dept. of Energy with base value of approximately $150 mln

  • CME Group ( CME 0.79% ) Reports November 2022 Monthly Market Statistics

  • Credit Suisse ( CS 5.79% ) Chairman Axel Lehmann says liquidity situation is improving, according to Bloomberg interview

  • Cutera, Inc. ( CUTR 5.02% ) Provides Response to FDA Inquiry

  • Digital World Acquisition Corp ( DWAC 1.93% ): Ye (Kanye West) is not longer buying Parler, according to Axios

  • ICF International ( ICFI 1.70% ) awarded $26 mln contract to support the FCC; awarded in Q3

  • Immunocore ( IMCR 4.51% ) and Gadeta announce agreement to develop first gamma delta TCR ImmTAC for solid tumors

  • Insteel Industries ( IIIN 1.63% ) announces that Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer Mark Carano has resigned, effective December 30, 2022, to pursue another opportunity

  • Fisker ( FSR 5.43% ) responds to report published by Fuzzy Panda Research; says it does not have a bank guarantee with Magna and that it owns the intellectual property for Fisker Ocean platform

  • FTI Consulting's ( FCN 2.52% ) Board authorizes $400 mln repurchase program

  • GlaxoSmithKline ( GSK 1.27% ): EMA accepts marketing authorisation application for momelotinib for the treatment of myelofibrosis

  • GlaxoSmithKline ( GSK 1.27% ) reports Jemperli (dostarlimab) RUBY phase III trial met its primary endpoint

  • Huazhu Group ( HTHT 1.65% ) announces that Ms. Hui Chen will step down as the chief financial officer of the Company, effective immediately

  • Lockheed Martin ( LMT 0.31% ) awarded $431 mln U.S. Army contract

  • Maravai Life Sciences ( MRVI 3.23% ) expects William Martin, III to assume the role of CEO on July 27, 2023

  • Marriott Vacations ( VAC 0.05% ) increases its quarterly dividend 16% to $0.72/share

  • Opendoor Technologies ( OPEN 0.54% ) appoints CFO Carrie Wheeler to CEO, effective immediately; current CEO Eric Wu transitions to new role as President, Marketplace

  • Owens Corning ( OC 1.41% ) approves quarterly dividend increase and new share repurchase authorization

  • PG&E ( PCG 0.51% ): The California Public Utilities Commission determined that its enhanced oversight and enforcement of PG&E 2020 vegetation management practices resulted in the utility completing required corrective actions

  • Raymond James ( RJF 0.44% ) increases quarterly dividend by 24% to $0.42/sh; also announces $1.5 bln share repurchase authorization

  • Rocket Lab USA ( RKLB 0.72% ) creates a subsidiary, Rocket Lab National Security LLC, to serve the defense and intelligence community

  • Tesla ( TSLA 0.00% ) delivers first semitrailer trucks to Pepsi (PEP), according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Theratechnologies ( THTX 0.94% ) to pause enrollment for TH1902 study

  • Triumph Bancorp ( TBK 1.71% ) completes rebranding effort, changes name to Triumph Financial; stock to begin trading on NASDAQ under new ticker symbol "TFIN" starting December 2

  • Uber ( UBER 2.75% ) not considering eliminating jobs, according to Bloomberg

  • Unum Group ( UNM 0.52% ) authorizes $200 mln share repurchase program

  • UroGen ( URGN 1.87% ) Announces New Data from the OLYMPUS Trial that Shows Median Durability of Response of 28.9 Months for JELMYTO, the Only Non-Surgical, Chemoablative Treatment for Adults with Low-Grade Upper Tract Urothelial Cancer

  • Vanda Pharma ( VNDA 0.46% ) reports results in Phase II clinical study of VQW-765

  • Ventyx Biosciences ( VTYX 1.90% ) Announces Dosing of the First Patient in the Phase 2 SERENITY Trial of VTX958 for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis

  • Verisk Analytics ( VRSK 1.32% ) COO Mark Anquillare to step down on January 15, 2023

  • Walt Disney ( DIS 0.74% ) proposal to restructure on McKinsey's advice, caused uproar from top creative execs, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Y-mAbs Therapeutics ( YMAB 0.67% ): FDA issues CRL for the BLA for 131I-omburtamab, FDA says it's unable to approve the BLA in its current form

M&A:

  • BorgWarner ( BWA 0.35% ) announced that it has acquired Drivetek AG

  • Ensign Group ( ENSG 0.68% ) acquires two skilled nursing facilities in Colorado

  • EQT Corp. ( EQT 2.10% ) provides acquisition update; started discussions regarding a potential amendment in connection with an extension of the Outside Date

  • Fortune Brands Home & Security ( FBHS 0.34% ) to acquire Emtek and Schaub residential hardware brands and U.S. and Canadian Yale and August Residential Smart Lock Brands from ASSA ABLOY

  • Gold Royalty ( GROY 7.89% ) acquires 12 new royalties in the prolific Abitibi Greenstone Belt and enters agreements to generate future royalties

  • Intuit ( INTU 2.08% ) acquires SeedFi; financial terms were not disclosed

  • Marsh McLennan ( MMC 0.09% ) acquires McDonald Zaring Insurance; terms of acquisition not disclosed

  • Sterling Infrastructure ( STRL 0.79% ) enters into agreement to sell its 50% ownership interest in its partnership with Myers & Sons Construction L.P. for $18 million in cash

Syndicate:

  • Cigna ( CI 1.65% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Clarivate ( CLVT 2.76% ) files mixed securities shelf offering; also files for 281,668,166 ordinary share offering by selling shareholders

  • Fennec Pharmaceuticals ( FENC 1.02% ) files for 3,914,850 share common stock offering by selling shareholders

  • Paycor ( PYCR 3.01% ) announces the upsize and pricing of the previously announced underwritten public offering of its common stock by investment funds advised by Apax Partners LLP at a price to the public of $28.60 per share

  • Shoals Technologies ( SHLS 19.57% ) prices offering of 26 mln shares of common stock at $22.25 per share

  • Trip.com Group ( TCOM 0.25% ) enters sustainability-linked loan facility agreement

IPOs:

  • Expect to Price:

  • No IPOs expected.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • IOT +21.6%, PATH +11.1%, SMAR +8%, AOUT +7.9%, CARG +6.9%, SPB +4.3%, PD +3.2%, IIIN +3%, ACHR +2.3%, PCG +1.9%, CI +1.9%, LEU +1%, MMX +0.9%, TCOM +0.7%, VSTO +0.5%


  • Gapping down:

  • ASAN -18.2%, YMAB -15.6%, THTX -13.7%, ZS -9%, MRVL -6.8%, PYCR -5.2%, VEEV -4.9%, SHLS -4.2%, CHPT -2.9%, AMBA -2.5%, OPEN -2.2%, RCKT -1.8%, FENC -1.6%, ARCE -1.5%, SWBI -1.1%, CLVT -1.1%, CUTR -0.7%



Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Associated British Foods (ASBFY) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman

  • Associated British Foods (ASBFY) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley


  • Downgrades:

  • AppHarvest (APPH) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer

  • Asana (ASAN) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt lowered to $15


  • Others:

  • Amprius Technologies (AMPX) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley Securities; tgt $14


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: Nonfarm Payrolls for Nov (Briefing.com Consensus 200K; Prior 261K)

  • 08:30 ET: Nonfarm Private Payrolls for Nov (Briefing.com Consensus 200K; Prior 233K)

  • 08:30 ET: Avg. Hourly Earnings for Nov (Briefing.com Consensus 0.3%; Prior 0.4%)

  • 08:30 ET: Unemployment Rate for Nov (Briefing.com Consensus 3.7%; Prior 3.7%)

  • 08:30 ET: Average Workweek for Nov (Briefing.com Consensus 34.5; Prior 34.5)


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Nov 28)

  • Morning: None of note

  • Afternoon: ARWR, AZEK


  • Tuesday (Nov 29)

  • Morning: BNS, BZUN, BILI, CRNC, HIBB, SJR

  • Afternoon: CMP, CRWD, HPE, INTU, NTAP, WDAY


  • Wednesday (Nov 30)

  • Morning: DCI, FRO, HRL, BEKE, LESL, WOOF, RY, SFL, TITN

  • Afternoon: BOX, CRDO, ESTC, FIVE, LZB, NCNO, NTNX, OKTA, PSTG, PVH, CRM, SMTC, SNOW, SPLK, SNPS, VSCO, YEXT


  • Thursday (Dec 01)

  • Morning: BMO, BIG, CM, DBI, DG, KR, PDCO, SCWX, TD

  • Afternoon: AMBA, AOUT, ASAN, CHPT, MRVL, PD, SMAR, PATH, ULTA, VEEV, ZS, ZUMZ


  • Friday (Dec 02)

  • Morning: CBRL, GCO

  • Afternoon: None of note



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -1.6%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a lower note. Japanese regulators are reportedly probing regional banks regarding unrealized losses on foreign bonds. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda acknowledged that a global economic slowdown has been observed. Unionized rail workers in South Korea dropped their plan for a strike.

  • In economic data:

  • South Korea's November CPI -0.1% m/m (last 0.3%); 5.0% yr/yr (expected 5.1%; last 5.7%)

  • Australia's October Home Loans -2.9% m/m (expected -4.5%; last -4.8%) and October Retail Sales -0.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.6%)

  • New Zealand's Q3 Terms of Trade Index -3.4% qtr/qtr (expected 1.6%; last -2.4%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -1.6% (-1.8% for the week)

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.3% (+6.3% for the week)

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3% (+1.8% for the week)

  • India's Sensex: -0.7% (+0.9% for the week)

  • South Korea's Kospi: -1.8% (-0.1% for the week)

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.7% (+0.8% for the week)

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -1.0% to 133.99

  • USD/CNH: -0.3% to 7.0150

  • USD/INR: +0.2% to 81.33

Europe: DAX +0.3%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -0.1%

Major European indices trade near their flat lines. Eurozone's October PPI decelerated for the second consecutive month, returning to levels seen at the end of Q1. European officials are still trying to agree on a price cap for Russian oil. Hungary's Prime Minister Orban repeated his country's opposition to implementing a global minimum corporate tax. Spain was visited by over seven million tourists in October, which was about 6.0% below the total from October 2019.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's October PPI -2.9% m/m (expected -2.0%; last 1.6%); 30.8% yr/yr (expected 31.5%; last 41.9%)

  • Germany's October trade surplus EUR6.90 bln (expected surplus of EUR5.20 bln; last surplus of EUR2.80 bln). October Imports -3.7% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -2.2%) and Exports -0.6% m/m (expected -0.3%; last -0.7%). October Import Price Index -1.2% m/m (expected -1.7%; last -0.9%); 23.5% yr/yr (expected 23.3%; last 29.8%)

  • France's October Industrial Production -2.6% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.9%). October government budget deficit EUR143.20 bln (last deficit of EUR146.60 bln)

  • Spain's November Unemployment Change -33,500 (expected -20,300; last -27,000)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.1% (+0.7% week-to-date)

  • Germany's DAX: +0.3% (UNCH week-to-date)

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2% (+0.8% week-to-date)

  • France's CAC 40: -0.1% (+0.5% week-to-date)

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: UNCH (-0.1% week-to-date)

  • Spain's IBEX 35: UNCH (-0.1% week-to-date)

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: UNCH at 1.0527

  • GBP/USD: +0.2% to 1.2273

  • USD/CHF: -0.3% to 0.9339


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