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01/12/23 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are down eight points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 48 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

Pre-open trading has been somewhat mixed after stocks logged big gains in November.

The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.69% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.32%.

China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November returned into expansion while Manufacturing PMI readings in Germany, France, Spain, and the U.K. all showed a slower pace of ongoing contraction.

U.S. economic data today includes the final November S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET followed by the November ISM Manufacturing Index and October Construction Spending report at 10:00 a.m. ET

In other news, fighting resumed between Israel and Gaza, but discussions over another truce are said to continue, according to The New York Times.

In corporate news:

  • Walt Disney (DIS 93.05, +0.36, +0.4%): announces a cash dividend of $0.30/share in respect of the second half of fiscal year 2023 after suspending its dividend in the spring of 2020

  • Tesla (TSLA 234.35, -5.70, -2.4%): Cybertruck will start at approximately $61,000, according to WSJ

  • Dell (DELL 71.75, -4.12, -5.4%): beats by $0.42, misses on revs; projects Q4 earnings and sales below consensus; expects a return to growth in FY25

  • Pfizer (PFE 29.38, -1.09, -3.6%): announces topline Phase 2b results of oral GLP-1R agonist, danuglipron, in adults with obesity; high rates of common adverse events were observed

  • Ulta Beauty (ULTA 475.01, +49.02, +11.5%): beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line, comps of +4.5%; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs below consensus, comps of +5.0-5.5%; announces that Scott Settersen will reitre as CFO; SVP of finance Paula Oyibo promoted to CFO, effective April 1 2024

  • Elastic (ESTC 95.00, +14.64, +18.2%): beats by $0.13, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • PagerDuty (PD 23.13, +1.33, +6.1%): beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides JanQ EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Marvell (MRVL 53.04, -2.69, -4.7%): beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • UiPath (PATH 22.58, +2.82, +14.3%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line

  • Humana (HUM 485.00, +0.14, +0.03%): reaffirms FY23 adjusted EPS guidance ahead of several investor meetings in December

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.2% (-0.6% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.3% (-4.2% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: +0.1% (-0.3% for the week), India's Sensex: +0.7% (+2.3% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: -1.2% (+0.3% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2% (+0.6% for the week).

    • In economic data:

      • China's November Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.7 (expected 49.3; last 49.5)

      • Japan's final November Manufacturing PMI 48.3 (expected 48.1; last 48.7). October jobs/applications ratio 1.30 (expected 1.29; last 1.29) and October Unemployment Rate 2.5% (expected 2.6%; last 2.6%). Q3 Capital Spending 3.4% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.5%)

      • South Korea's November trade surplus $3.80 bln (expected surplus of $1.30 bln; last surplus of $1.63 bln). November Imports -11.6% yr/yr (expected -8.6%; last -9.7%) and Exports 7.8% yr/yr (expected 4.7%; last 5.1%). Final November Manufacturing PMI 50.0 (last 49.8)

      • India's final November Manufacturing PMI 56.0, as expected (last 55.5)

      • Australia's final November Manufacturing PMI 47.7, as expected (last 48.2) and November Commodity Prices -10.5% yr/yr (last -15.8%)


  • In news:

    • China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November (actual 50.7; last 49.5) returned into expansion, contrasting with the official Manufacturing PMI (actual 49.4; last 49.5) that was released on Thursday.

    • Australia's Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction for the ninth consecutive month and Japan's Manufacturing PMI contracted for the sixth month in a row.

    • China Real Estate Information Corporation noted that the top 100 developers saw a 29.6% yr/yr drop in November revenue.

    • There was speculation that the People's Bank of China could cut the reserve requirement ratio before the end of the year to meet liquidity needs.

    • A former Bank of Japan deputy governor said that the central bank could exit negative rate policy in April, once higher pay is secured during annual wage talks.



  • Major European indices trade in the green. STOXX Europe 600: +0.5% (+0.8% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: +0.7% (+1.9% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.7% (+0.2% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: +0.4% (+0.6% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5% (+1.5% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5% (+1.7% week-to-date).

    • In economic data:

      • Eurozone's November Manufacturing PMI 44.2 (expected 43.8; last 43.1)

      • Germany's November Manufacturing PMI 42.6 (expected 42.3; last 40.8)

      • U.K.'s November Manufacturing PMI 47.2 (expected 46.7; last 44.8). November Nationwide HPI 0.2% m/m (expected -0.4%; last 0.9%); -2.0% yr/yr (expected -2.2%; last -3.3%)

      • France's November Manufacturing PMI 42.9 (expected 42.6; last 42.8). October government budget deficit EUR177.7 bln (last deficit of EUR186.1 bln)

      • Italy's Q3 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.0%; last -0.4%); 0.1% yr/yr (expected 0.0%; last 0.3%). November Manufacturing PMI 44.4 (expected 45.3; last 44.9)

      • Spain's November Manufacturing PMI 46.3 (expected 45.5; last 45.1)

      • Swiss November procure.ch PMI 42.1 (expected 42.0; last 40.6). Q3 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last -0.1%); 0.3% yr/yr (expected 0.5%; last 0.3%)


  • In news:

    • Manufacturing PMI readings in Germany, France, Spain, and the U.K. showed some sequential improvement, but all continued pointing to an ongoing contraction, though at a slower pace.

    • European Central Bank policymaker Nagel repeated that it is too early to discuss rate cuts and that inflation could still accelerate.

    • Goldman Sachs now expects that the first cut from the ECB will take place in Q2 instead of Q3. Fitch Ratings is expected to release its latest review of Greece's rating later today.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures -10 @ 4,558

  • DJIA Futures: -21 @ 35,930

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -55 @ 15,893

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.7%, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +0.4%

  • Asia: Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -1.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.11 @ 75.85

  • Nat Gas -0.034 @ 2.768

  • Gold -0.30 @ 2037.80

  • Silver -0.118 @ 25.175

  • Copper +0.0272 @ 3.8777

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Ambarella ( AMBA 0.00% ) beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides JanQ revs in-line; expects revenue growth in FY25

  • American Woodmark ( AMWD 0.00% ) beats by $0.27, beats on revs; projects low double digit sales decline in FY24

  • Bank of Montreal ( BMO 0.00% ) beats by $0.72, beats on revs; increases quarterly dividend $0.04 to $1.51/share

  • Booz Allen Hamilton ( BAH 0.53% ) reaffirms FY24 guidance in slide presentation

  • CleanSpark ( CLSK 0.00% ) reports FY23 earnings results

  • Dell ( DELL 1.08% ) beats by $0.42, misses on revs; projects Q4 earnings and sales below consensus; expects a return to growth in FY25

  • Domo ( DOMO 0.00% ) beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Elastic ( ESTC 0.90% ) beats by $0.13, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Genesco ( GCO 0.35% ) misses by $0.26, misses on revs; lowers FY24 EPS guidance; raises FY24 revenue guidance

  • Humana ( HUM 0.00% ) reaffirms FY23 adjusted EPS guidance ahead of several investor meetings in December

  • Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ 1.68% ) lowers its FY23 earnings outlook due to the previously announced acquisition of Laminar; will reduce FY24 earnings by $0.15

  • Li Auto ( LI 0.00% ) reports November deliveries increased 172.9% yr/yr

  • Marvell ( MRVL 0.00% ) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • NIO ( NIO 1.25% ) reports November deliveries increased 12.6% yr/yr

  • PagerDuty ( PD 0.00% ) beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides JanQ EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Samsara ( IOT 2.13% ) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs above consensus

  • SilverBow Resources ( SBOW 0.00% ) provides updated 2023 guidance and issues prelim 2024 targets

  • UiPath ( PATH 0.55% ) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line

  • Ulta Beauty ( ULTA 0.00% ) beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line, comps of +4.5%; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs below consensus, comps of +5.0-5.5%

  • XPeng ( XPEV 3.21% ) reports November deliveries increased 245% yr/yr

  • Zumiez ( ZUMZ 0.00% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides JanQ EPS below consensus, revs above consensus

News:

  • Fighting resumes between Israel and Gaza, according to the New York Times

  • Judge blocks Montana ban of TikTok, according to the New York Post

  • Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported November gross revs 435% yr/yr to HKD 16.04 bln versus -55.6% in November of 2022

  • AC Immune ( ACIU 0.00% ) announces promotion of interim CFO Christopher Roberts to Chief Financial Officer; also announces appointment of Dr. Madiha Derouazi as Chief Scientific Officer

  • Altimmune ( ALT 0.00% ) Announces Positive Topline Results from MOMENTUM 48-Week Phase 2 Obesity Trial of Pemvidutide

  • Applied Materials ( AMAT 0.00% ) receives SBTi validation of its science-based Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions reductions targets

  • AstraZeneca ( AZN 0.00% ) discontinues two CRYSTALIZE evidence trials

  • Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria ( BBVA 1.69% ): European Central Bank communicated to BBVA the minimum capital requirements for the year 2024

  • Becton Dickinson ( BDX 0.21% ): FDA Safety Communication Does Not Impact BD Syringes

  • Beyond, Inc. ( BYON 0.00% ) board of directors unanimously approves a declassification of the Board, subject to shareholder approval at the 2024 Annual Meeting of Stockholders

  • Blackrock ( BLK 0.53% ): SEC meeting with Blackrock about potential bitcoin ETF, according to CNBC

  • Brookfield Asset Mgmt's ( BAM 1.82% ) global infrastructure equity fund, Brookfield Infrastructure Fund V, raised $30 bln for the strategy, including $28 bln for the Fund and approximately $2 bln in related co-investment vehicles

  • Cameco ( CCJ 0.00% ) appoints Catherine Gignac as chair of the board of directors effective Dec 1

  • Comcast ( CMCSA 0.00% ): Vox Media cutting about 4% of its workforce, the second round of layoffs this year, according to Variety

  • DNA Labs International ( QGEN 0.17% ) solves significant cold cases with QIAGEN workflow for forensic genetic genealogy

  • Ecopetrol ( EC 0.79% ) will invest between 23 and 27 trillion pesos in 2024

  • Embecta Corp. ( EMBC 0.00% ) states No Embecta-made syringes impacted by FDA safety communication

  • Exact Sciences ( EXAS 0.00% ) Presents Multiple Studies at San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium Supporting Optimization and Individualization of Therapy for Breast Cancer Patients

  • Fisker ( FSR 11.24% ) provides business update; Fisker has made a strategic decision to reduce December production to prioritize liquidity to unlock over $300 million of working capital

  • Franco-Nevada ( FNV 1.63% ) provides update on developments in Panama

  • General Dynamics ( GD 0.87% ) will compete with Tactical Systems, Inc. for a $655 mln U.S. Army contract

  • Markel Group ( MKL 1.69% ) COO Bob Cox to leave his role, effective December 31

  • Merck ( MRK 1.33% ) announces that the U.S FDA accepted for priority review a new supplemental Biologics License Application seeking approval for KEYTRUDA, Merck's anti-PD-1 therapy, in combination with Padcev, an antibody-drug conjugate, for the treatment of adult patients with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma

  • Novo Nordisk ( NVO 0.16% ) files lawsuit against Florida pharmacies, according to Reuters

  • Petrobras ( PBR 0.33% ) starts contracts with CEG and CEG RIO

  • Pfizer ( PFE 1.30% ) announces topline Phase 2b results of oral GLP-1R agonist, danuglipron, in adults with obesity; high rates of common adverse events were observed

  • Raymond James ( RJF 1.35% ) increases quarterly dividend by 7.1% to $0.45/share; also authorizes stock repurchase program of up to $1.5 bln of common stock

  • Rogers Comms ( RCI 2.01% ) acquires 3800 MHz 5G Spectrum Across Canada; co invested $475 million for 40.5 MHz of 3800 MHz spectrum at $0.32 cents per MHz/POP across 172 regions available under the spectrum auction

  • Seagen ( SGEN 0.00% ): FDA Grants Priority Review for Supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) of PADCEV (enfortumab vedotin-ejfv) with KEYTRUDA (pembrolizumab) for First-Line Treatment of Advanced Bladder Cancer

  • Siemens AG ( SIEGY ): UK CMA has decided that the anticipated acquisition by Siemens of Heliox does not qualify for investigation under the merger provisions of the Enterprise Act 2002

  • Skyward Specialty Insurance Group ( SKWD 0.00% ) Chairman Cameron MacDonald resigning, effective today; succeeded by CEO Andrew Robinson

  • Tagna ( TGN 2.85% A): Various Tagna stations have gone out amid dispute with DirectTV, according to Deadline

  • Tesla ( TSLA 0.00% ) releases prices of its new Cybertruck; starts at $60,990

  • Ulta Beauty ( ULTA 0.00% ) announces that Scott Settersen will reitre as CFO; SVP of finance Paula Oyibo promoted to CFO, effective April 1 2024

  • UMH Properties ( UMH 0.42% ) expands partnership with Nuveen Real Estate through entering into a new joint venture

  • Vista Outdoor ( VSTO 1.15% ) appointed Eric Nyman and Jason Vanderbrink to serve as Co-Chief Executive Officers in connection with and in preparation for the consummation of Revelyst Transaction

  • Walt Disney ( DIS 0.21% ): Blackwells Capital calls on Trian to end its misguided and "ego-driven" campaign to seek board representation at DIS

  • Walt Disney ( DIS 0.21% ) announces a cash dividend of $0.30/share in respect of the second half of fiscal year 2023; company had suspended its dividend in the spring of 2020

  • Waste Connections ( WCN 2.15% ) expects to record an increase to its landfill closure and post-closure liabilities in the amount of approximately $160 million

  • West Pharm ( WST 0.53% ) executed an amendment to the global master supply agreement with ExxonMobil (XOM) Product Solutions Company on Nov 27

M&A:

  • Carlyle Group ( CG 0.00% ): EU Commission clears acquisition of CAPTRUST by Carlyle and GTCR

  • FTAI Aviation Ltd. ( FTAI 0.00% ) announced its full ownership stake in QuickTurn Engine Center following its acquisition of Unical Aviation Inc.'s 50% interest

  • Neiman Marcus rejected most recent takeover offer from Saks, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Nevro ( NVRO 3.34% ) acquires Vyrsa Technologies for $40 million at closing and agreed to pay up to an additional $35 million in cash or stock tied to achievement of certain development and sales milestones

  • Splunk ( SPLK 0.00% ) shareholders voted to adopt the Merger Agreement with Cisco (CSCO) at Nov 29 meeting

  • TotalEnergies SE ( TTE 0.28% ) divests minority stake in National Petroleum Refiners of South Africa Refinery

  • Weyerhaeuser ( WY 1.10% ) to divest approximately 69,600 acres in SC for $170 mln; to purchase approximately 60,700 acres in NC, SC, and MS for $163 mln

Syndicate:

  • American Intl ( AIG 1.51% ) announces launch of secondary offering of Corebridge Financial (CRBG) common stock

  • Clearwater Analytics ( CWAN 0.00% ) launches a secondary offering of 17 mln common shares of Class A common stock

  • Salesforce ( CRM 9.36% ) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • Super Micro Computer ( SMCI 0.00% ) prices offering of 2,100,700 shares of its common stock at $262.00 per share

  • The Metals Company ( TMC 0.00% ) files $100 mln mixed shelf securities offering

  • Viridian Therapeutics ( VRDN 0.00% ) files for 15,024,238 shares of common stock by selling shareholders

IPOs:

  • Panera Brands files confidentially for IPO, according to Financial Times

  • No IPOs expected to price.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • ALT +36.7%, ESTC +18.6%, PATH +15.4%, IOT +15.1%, ULTA +10.9%, DOMO +8.2%, PD +5.9%, TV +4%, HCM +3.2%, FSR +3.2%, EXAS +3.1%, BANC +2.4%, AMWD +2.2%, ELF +1.8%, BYON +1.6%, NVRO +1.6%, ZUMZ +1.5%, LI +1.4%, AMBA +1.3%, PK +1%, JNJ +1%, LSCC +0.8%, CNHI +0.7%


  • Gapping down:

    • CWAN -6.1%, MRVL -5.4%, DELL -5.1%, TMC -3.5%, CLSK -3.2%, SMCI -3.1%, CRBG -2.5%, TSLA -1.2%, XPEV -1.1%, CRM -0.8%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

    • Elastic (ESTC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $108

    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt raised to $180

    • Norfolk Southern (NSC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $248

    • Rio Tinto (RIO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Liberum


  • Downgrades:

    • BioNTech (BNTX) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $99

    • ImmunoGen (IMGN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim; tgt raised to $31

    • LVMH (LVMUY) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley

    • MarketWise (MKTW) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; tgt raised to $3.50

    • Pearson Plc (PSO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank

    • REE Automotive (REE) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald

    • Remitly Global (RELY) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research

    • Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $110


  • Others:

    • Amdocs (DOX) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $105

    • Arcos Dorados (ARCO) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $15

    • Builders FirstSource (BLDR) initiated with a Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $143

    • Constellation Brands (STZ) added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman

    • Digital Realty Trust (DLR) initiated with a Reduce at HSBC Securities; tgt $112

    • Equinix (EQIX) initiated with a Buy at HSBC Securities; tgt $875

    • Gatos Silver (GATO) resumed with a Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $6.25

    • LPL Financial (LPLA) initiated with a Neutral at Redburn Atlantic; tgt $240

    • NASDAQ (NDAQ) resumed with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $58

    • PriceSmart (PSMT) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $82

    • Transdigm Group (TDG) initiated with a Hold at Stifel; tgt $1000

    • Wabtec (WAB) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna; tgt $150

    • Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman


Econ Data:

  • 09:45 ET: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - Final for Nov (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 49.4)

  • 10:00 ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for Nov (Briefing.com Consensus 47.5%; Prior 46.7%)

  • 10:00 ET: Construction Spending for Oct (Briefing.com Consensus 0.3%; Prior 0.4%)

Earnings:

  • Monday (Nov 27)

    • Morning: CRNC

    • Afternoon: ZS


  • Tuesday (Nov 28)

    • Morning: PDD

    • Afternoon: AZEK CRWD FLNC HPE INTU LESL NTAP SPLK WDAY


  • Wednesday (Nov 29)

    • Morning: BILI DLTR DCI FTCH FL HRL ROAD PDCO VSTS WOOF

    • Afternoon: ARWR CRDO CRM FIVE LZB NCNO NTNX OKTA PSTG PVH SNOW SNPS VSCO ZUO


  • Thursday (Nov 30)

    • Morning: ASO AMWD BIG CBRL FRO KR RY TITN TD

    • Afternoon: AMBA DELL DOMO ESTC PD IOT MRVL PATH ULTA ZUMZ


  • Friday, (Dec 1)

    • Morning: GCO

    • Afternoon: None



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -1.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note. China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November (actual 50.7; last 49.5) returned into expansion, contrasting with the official Manufacturing PMI (actual 49.4; last 49.5) that was released on Thursday. Meanwhile, Australia's Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction for the ninth consecutive month and Japan's Manufacturing PMI contracted for the sixth month in a row. China Real Estate Information Corporation noted that the top 100 developers saw a 29.6% yr/yr drop in November revenue. There was speculation that the People's Bank of China could cut the reserve requirement ratio before the end of the year to meet liquidity needs. A former Bank of Japan deputy governor said that the central bank could exit negative rate policy in April, once higher pay is secured during annual wage talks.

  • In economic data:

    • China's November Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.7 (expected 49.3; last 49.5)

    • Japan's final November Manufacturing PMI 48.3 (expected 48.1; last 48.7). October jobs/applications ratio 1.30 (expected 1.29; last 1.29) and October Unemployment Rate 2.5% (expected 2.6%; last 2.6%). Q3 Capital Spending 3.4% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.5%)

    • South Korea's November trade surplus $3.80 bln (expected surplus of $1.30 bln; last surplus of $1.63 bln). November Imports -11.6% yr/yr (expected -8.6%; last -9.7%) and Exports 7.8% yr/yr (expected 4.7%; last 5.1%). Final November Manufacturing PMI 50.0 (last 49.8)

    • India's final November Manufacturing PMI 56.0, as expected (last 55.5)

    • Australia's final November Manufacturing PMI 47.7, as expected (last 48.2) and November Commodity Prices -10.5% yr/yr (last -15.8%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -0.2% (-0.6% for the week)

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.3% (-4.2% for the week)

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.1% (-0.3% for the week)

  • India's Sensex: +0.7% (+2.3% for the week)

  • South Korea's Kospi: -1.2% (+0.3% for the week)

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2% (+0.6% for the week)

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: UNCH at 148.15

  • USD/CNH: +0.2% to 7.1524

  • USD/INR: -0.1% to 83.30

Europe: DAX +0.7%, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +0.4%

Major European indices trade in the green. Manufacturing PMI readings in Germany, France, Spain, and the U.K. showed some sequential improvement, but all continued pointing to an ongoing contraction, though at a slower pace. European Central Bank policymaker Nagel repeated that it is too early to discuss rate cuts and that inflation could still accelerate. Still, Goldman Sachs now expects that the first cut from the ECB will take place in Q2 instead of Q3. Fitch Ratings is expected to release its latest review of Greece's rating later today.

  • In economic data:

    • Eurozone's November Manufacturing PMI 44.2 (expected 43.8; last 43.1)

    • Germany's November Manufacturing PMI 42.6 (expected 42.3; last 40.8)

    • U.K.'s November Manufacturing PMI 47.2 (expected 46.7; last 44.8). November Nationwide HPI 0.2% m/m (expected -0.4%; last 0.9%); -2.0% yr/yr (expected -2.2%; last -3.3%)

    • France's November Manufacturing PMI 42.9 (expected 42.6; last 42.8). October government budget deficit EUR177.7 bln (last deficit of EUR186.1 bln)

    • Italy's Q3 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.0%; last -0.4%); 0.1% yr/yr (expected 0.0%; last 0.3%). November Manufacturing PMI 44.4 (expected 45.3; last 44.9)

    • Spain's November Manufacturing PMI 46.3 (expected 45.5; last 45.1)

    • Swiss November procure.ch PMI 42.1 (expected 42.0; last 40.6). Q3 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last -0.1%); 0.3% yr/yr (expected 0.5%; last 0.3%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.5% (+0.8% week-to-date)

  • Germany's DAX: +0.7% (+1.9% week-to-date)

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.7% (+0.2% week-to-date)

  • France's CAC 40: +0.4% (+0.6% week-to-date)

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5% (+1.5% week-to-date)

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5% (+1.7% week-to-date)

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.1% to 1.0894

  • GBP/USD: +0.2% to 1.2648

  • USD/CHF: -0.1% to 0.8746

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